Services GMV per specialty, triangulated from three independent anchor sets: (a) hospital-chain specialty revenue mixes from FY25 investor filings (Max, Apollo, Fortis — HIGH), (b) the CRISIL healthcare-delivery market (₹6.3 lakh Cr FY24 → ≈₹7.0 lakh Cr FY25 — HIGH) and Praxis outpatient market (US$26B FY21, 13% CAGR — MEDIUM), and (c) vertical market studies (LOW, used only as cross-checks). Ranges are deliberate — point estimates would be false precision.
| Specialty | GMV 2025 (₹ Cr) | Mid (US$ B) | × Derm | Growth (CAGR) | Grade | Primary anchors |
|---|
Anchors: Max FY25 gross IP revenue mix — Onco 25.8% (+31% YoY), Cardiac 10.7%, Ortho 10.4% (+30%), Neuro 9.3%, ObGyn&Peds 7.3% (+36%), Gastro 5.0%; Apollo FY25 IP mix — Cardio 19%, Onco 17%, Neuro 10%, Ortho 10%, Gastro 6%; Fortis FY25 — focus specialties (Onco+Neuro+Cardiac+Gastro+Ortho+Renal) = 62% of hospital revenue. CRISIL delivery market ₹6.3 L Cr FY24; IPD ≈ 71% of hospital revenue. Praxis: outpatient US$26B FY21 / 4B+ consults / GP 63% by value. Vertical cross-checks: dental US$2.5B organized (Nexdigm), IVF ≈US$1B (LoEstro/IMARC), aesthetics US$0.65–2.0B (IMARC/GVR — 3× spread flagged), mental-health services ₹8–15k Cr (after stripping IMARC's US$20.8B burden-inclusive figure).
Consultation fees are the smallest part of specialty value. This model follows the money through the full journey you specified: booking (transaction) → % who actually walk in → % converting to diagnostics (+ cost) → % converting to a procedure (+ cost) → repeat rate (+ cost), over a 12-month window per booked patient. Every input is listed with its evidence grade in Methodology; conversions triangulate India studies (prescription audits: investigations advised on 30–64% of OPD scripts; OPD→IPD ≈10–15%; advised-admission acceptance 41–85% by specialty) with global benchmarks where India data doesn't exist (flagged).
| Specialty | Show % | Consult ₹ | →Dx % | Dx ₹ | →Proc % | Proc ₹ (blended) | Repeat visits | Repeat ₹/visit | AOV/booking ₹ | AOV/walk-in ₹ | × Derm |
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Blended procedure ₹ = probability-weighted mix within the converting cohort, e.g. Cardiology = 45% angiography-only ₹40k + 45% PCI ₹2.6L + 10% CABG ₹4.5L; Ortho = 8% surgery ₹1.55L (arthroscopy/TKR/spine) + 11% non-surgical intervention ₹9k; Derm = medical-derm minor procedures ₹3–8k majority + aesthetics courses (laser-hair-removal package ₹45k, GFC/PRP course ₹25–35k, scar-laser course ₹30k, botulinum ₹15k/sitting, hair transplant ₹85k minority). Pediatrics: private vaccination (IAP schedule, ₹20–35k year-1) is carried in the repeat layer, not procedures.
Market GMV answers "where is healthcare money". A platform decision needs a different question: "which rupees can a booking platform actually route and monetize?" Three structural filters — % out-of-pocket (insurer/govt-settled spend resists take-rates), % planned & discovery-led (emergencies and referral-locked care aren't bookable), and digital-discovery propensity (who searches for this care online) — invert the ranking. All multipliers are structural estimates MODEL, anchored on payor disclosures (Apollo FY25: insurance 44% / self-pay 41%; Fortis: TPA 37% / cash 34%) and NHA out-of-pocket data.
| Specialty | Market mid (₹ Cr) | × OOP | × Planned | × Digital | = Serviceable (₹ Cr) | Demand mix % | Take-rate | Capturable /1,000 bkgs (₹) |
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Demand mix = share of online consultations by specialty. Anchor: Practo Insights — GP + Dermatology + Gynecology together = 51% of all online consults (Mar–May 2020, 5 Cr users; the last published platform-wide split: GP ≈26%, Derm ≈20%, Gynec ≈16%); remaining specialties modeled from Practo's Apr-2024 top-volume list (GP, Derm, Gynec, Peds, ENT) MEDIUM — flagged 2020-vintage. Take-rates are strategic estimates: 15% on cash aesthetics packages vs 2–5% lead-gen fees on insurer-settled hospital procedures (consistent with Pristyn/HexaHealth package economics vs hospital referral fees).
Scored across 9 dimensions with disclosed weights. Every cell cites the data behind it (hover/footnotes below). Candidates = the realistic category plays; GP excluded (it is the platform's existing core, not a new category bet).
| Candidate | Serviceable pool w 15% | Growth w 10% | End-to-end AOV w 10% | Repeat annuity w 15% | Cash-pay w 10% | Existing demand fit w 15% | Competitive whitespace w 10% | Supply standardizable w 10% | Regulatory w 5% | Weighted |
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The case does not rest on market size — dermatology is a bottom-3 market and anyone pitching aesthetics on TAM is overselling. It rests on capture: aesthetics is the only category where India-scale demand already sits on Practo's platform, ~95% of spend is cash, ~90% is planned, repeat behaviour is structural (laser courses 6–8 sessions, botulinum 3–4×/yr), no organized competitor has passed ₹250 Cr, and a May-2026 regulation just pushed the grey market toward exactly the asset Practo owns: a verified-doctor graph with 5 lakh+ doctors and 1,000+ audited establishments.
12-month value per booked transaction = show% × [consult fee + dx% × dx basket + proc% × blended procedure value + repeat visits × repeat value]. Cohort = new patients booking via a platform; window = 12 months; multi-session treatments (laser courses, chemo cycles, IVF) counted once at committed-course value in the procedure stage, with subsequent-cycle/maintenance spend in the repeat layer (no double-counting). Pediatric private vaccination is carried entirely in the repeat layer. All arithmetic computed programmatically; low/base/high scenarios move conversions and prices together (conservative ↔ aggressive).
| Stage | India evidence | Global fallback (used where India absent) | How applied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking → walk-in | "Up to 30%" OPD no-show claim (practice-mgmt vendor) LOW; no peer-reviewed India platform study exists — flagged gap | Global no-show ~23% (systematic review) HIGH; US by specialty: dental 15%, OBGYN 18%, primary 19%, onco 25%, neuro 26%, derm 30%, peds 30% LOW-MED; prepaid/tele booking cuts no-show (OR 0.40–0.61) HIGH | 67–85% by specialty: US specialty pattern re-centred on India's ~70–75% paid-booking baseline |
| Consult → diagnostic | Investigations advised on 60–64% of prescriptions (tertiary audits), ~30% (secondary, MH) MEDIUM | US: labs at 29–40.5% of visits, imaging 11–14% (CDC/NAMCS) HIGH | 12% (psych) to 92% (onco), clinically skewed within the India 30–64% band |
| Diagnostic basket ₹ | 2025 lab-chain/aggregator prices: CBC ₹200–300, echo ₹1.5–3.5k, TMT ₹0.8–1.6k, MRI brain ₹2.75–12k, endoscopy ₹1.8–8k, PET-CT ₹10–30k, audiometry ₹0.5–1.8k, OPG ₹285–640 HIGH | — | Blended basket per specialty (not every patient gets every test); aggregator-discount-weighted |
| Consult → procedure | OPD→IPD ≈10–15% (industry norm) MEDIUM; advised-admission acceptance by specialty 41–85% (single-hospital study, n=245) LOW-MED; TMH onco refusal 2.7%/abandonment 1% HIGH | Ortho referral→surgery 23–28% (meta-analysis) HIGH; colonoscopy referral→scope 32.5% (NZ); cardio consult→cath 10–30%, cath→revasc 43–46% (UK); dental case acceptance 50–60% (US); aesthetics consult→treatment 50–70% medspa / 38% academic (US); IVF consult→cycle 30–50% (US) | 2% (GP) to 47% (dental); derm blended to 28% because 70–80% of Indian derm OPD is medical, not cosmetic (KPMG) |
| Procedure ₹ (blended) | 2025 package prices: TKR ₹1.8–4.5L, PCI ₹1.5–4.5L, CABG ₹2.5–6L, C-section ₹1–1.8L (mid-range), IVF cycle ₹1–2.5L, lap chole ₹40k–1.5L, FESS ₹25–80k, tonsillectomy ₹25–90k, RCT ₹3–12k, implant ₹20–50k, LHR full-body package ₹1.2–2L, hair transplant ₹55k–2.5L, botulinum ₹12.5–25k/50U, chemo ₹35k–1L/cycle, full private cancer treatment ₹10–20L HIGH/MED | — | Probability-weighted mix inside the converting cohort (weights shown under the funnel table); aggregator floors run 20–60% below corporate-hospital invoices — mid-points used |
| Repeat layer | Practo platform: 3.2 consults/user/yr (2023) → 4.1 (CY2024); hypertension 5.1, diabetes 3.9, cardiology 2.5 HIGH (platform-reported); psychiatry first-visit dropout 38–60% (Rohtak/Gujarat studies) HIGH; IAP schedule ≈10–13 visits in first 2 yrs HIGH; private year-1 vaccination ₹20–35k HIGH | Dental recall 55–75% at 6 months (US/CA) MED; LHR 6–8 sessions, botulinum every 3–4 months HIGH (clinical norms); cardio follow-ups ~80% of specialty visit volume (US) | 0.9 (dental) to 4.5 (peds, vax-inclusive) additional visits/yr × blended repeat value |
| Market GMV | Chain FY25 specialty mixes (Max/Apollo/Fortis filings) HIGH × CRISIL delivery market ₹6.3 L Cr FY24 HIGH + Praxis outpatient US$26B FY21 @13% CAGR MED | Vendor vertical studies as cross-checks only LOW | Ranges; midpoints cross-foot to 79% of delivery market (residual = specialties outside the 12) |
| Addressability & take-rates | Apollo FY25 payor mix: insurance 44%/self-pay 41%/govt 10%; Fortis: TPA 37%/cash 34%; NHA: OOPE 39.4% of total health expenditure HIGH as inputs | — | The multipliers themselves are structural judgments MODEL — shown cell-by-cell in Q3 so you can re-run with your own |